It was 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
